Drabek on the Mound: Redux

Before Drabek's start, I posted words on the internet.

What I'd Like To See Today:

1. Continued control over the change-up.

1. Improved control on the sinker.

1. Some whiffs on the bender which he only threw five times against the Red Sox

Let's go ahead and peg Drabek for 7IP, 3ER, 6K, 3BB. You'd take that, right?

I would say that Drabek outperformed my optimistic guestimate with his 7.1 IP, 2R, 1ER, 1BB, 6K performance.

Now, to the points:

The Drabek Change-Up:

Hot damn. Drabek threw eleven change-ups and didn't disappoint. It again had terrific sink to it and managed a swinging strike rate of just under 45%. Dirty.

The Drabek Two-Seamer:

I would say throwing 40 two-seamers and getting 27 strikes aint all that shabby. Toss in an average velocity of 93.7mph and it's pretty gosh-darn good. Drabek only managed three swing and misses on the sinker, but the pitch was incredibly effective for him.

The Drabek Breaking Pitch:

Drabek only threw fourteen breaking pitches, but managed strikes on eight of 'em. Of course, he only got whiffs on two of those fourteen pitches, but he really didn't to use the bender as an out-pitch.

All and all, a pretty impressive outing.  Here's some brooks' data to sort through:

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Avg H-Break	Avg V-Break	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %	Linear Weights	Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	93.41	95.3	-3.64	7.19	34	21 / 61.76%	1 / 2.94%	1.6453	0.402
CH (Changeup)	84.99	86.8	-6.80	1.19	11	6 / 54.55%	5 / 45.45%	-0.1644	0.439
SL (Slider)	80.64	81.7	4.39	-4.44	9	5 / 55.56%	2 / 22.22%	-0.9009	0.463
CU (Curveball)	80.42	81.6	4.06	-4.31	5	3 / 60.00%	0 / 0.00%	-0.4157	0.465
FC (Cutter)	90.90	91.9	0.21	4.09	4	1 / 25.00%	0 / 0.00%	-0.6174	0.408
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	93.76	95.2	-8.04	4.86	40	27 / 67.50%	3 / 7.50%	-0.7651	0.401

Drabek On The Mound

So Kyle Drabek's set to take the mound against the O's later today and I'm cautiously optimistic. Drabek's currently sitting pretty with just a single earned run against in five and change innings, but the secondary statistics are still reason for concern.

Drabek's first start against the Red Sox was an intriguing one. Only righties were able to snag hits off him (Youkilis, Pedroia, Ross) and only lefties managed walks (Ortiz, Sweeney, Ellsbury.) Drabek finished up with a WHIP of 1.125, but the K:BB ratio of 1.33 wasn't exactly...ideal. With that said, Boston's fairly patient and Drabek showed some serious improvements.

First, he felt comfortable going to his change-up against lefties. He had pretty solid command and control over the pitch, and really only made one blunder. Against Boston's big lefties, I incorrectly assumed that Drabek would go cutter-heavy. Brooks Baseball listed two pitches as cutters, but you could probably argue for a handful more after viewing the pfx data. Drabek's change-up looked decidedly major-league level. There was added sink, further velocity separation, and quality arm-side run.

The only real issue Drabek had against the Sox was locating his sinker. The pitch had terrific velocity, sink and arm-side run, but was all over the zone. Drabek went to it about a quarter of the time, but almost 61% of the pitches went for balls. Against lefties, Drabek somehow managed to toss almost 70% of his two-seamers for balls. On the plus side, the Red Sox just couldn't do anything with the pitch when they swung. They'd miss it, foul it, or pound it into the dirt.

Now, for the phrase that you've heard a thousand of times:

Kyle Drabek needs to trust his stuff.

Drabek looks primed for a break-out sometime soon if he can just trust his stuff. He may never be the 8K-per-9 pitcher that everyone expected, but he's got the arsenal to be a very good player.

Baltimore's a righty-heavy squad so Drabek should fair well. Only Markakis, Davis and the switch-hitting Wieters will have the platoon advantage. If Drabek pitches a good game, we could see some solid strike-out numbers. If Drabek tries to get too fancy and makes mistakes, the Orioles certainly have the power in their bats to make him pay.

What I'd Like To See Today:

1. Continued control over the change-up.
2. Improved control on the sinker.
3. Some whiffs on the bender which he only threw five times against the Red Sox

Let's go ahead and peg Drabek for 7IP, 3ER, 6K, 3BB. You'd take that, right?

A Case of the Nolascos.

Yup, I've got 'em. There's no known cure for the Nolascos. Penicillin doesn't do a thing. Rest, Ice, Compression, and Elevation or RICE just makes 'em worse. If you've been playing fantasy baseball more than five years, I bet you've got 'em too.

There are just some players out there that you cannot avoid. Every year, you pick 'em. They're like scabs that just won't heal.  If Doctor Gregory House (who's finally back to my internet tv tomorrow) were my doctor, his white board would read as follows:

Ricky Nolasco: Every year he posts a FIP in the 3.50 range, a walk rate under 2.00 batters per 9, and a half-decent K-Rate. Every freakin' year. Last year Nolasco posted a WHIP of 1.40 and I still can't avoid taking him in deeper leagues.

Brandon Morrow: Since joining the Blue Jays, he's struck out more than a batter per inning and posted back-to-back xFIPs of 3.50ish.

Zack Greinke: It's not a bad thing to have Greinke on your roster, but I've spent years assuming he's probably the best pitcher in the game. I was rewarded in 2009, but since then random chance has decided that another Cy Young award just isn't in his cards.

Chad Billingsley: Just when I thought he was on the verge of making the hump to 8.00 K/9 and lowering his BB/9 to under 3.00, 2011 happened and he sucked. It's not like that'll stop me from drafting him, though.

Matt Garza: Hrm. His playoff performances really made a name for him, but up until last year, he was routinely average. Finally his fastball-slider combination lived up to the hype and he had a pretty solid year.

Daniel Hudson: Hudson has actually looked pretty sharp and I think 2012 is the year he gets that K-Rate above 8-per-9 while maintaining a BB-Rate of under 2-per-9. Should make the jump from good to great this year.

Trevor Cahill / Brett Anderson: Cahill got traded and while the move out of Oakland will hurt, facing a pitcher rather than DH will certainly help. He's a ground-ball pitcher, but there's no reason why he shouldn't be able to get Ks with his slider, curve and change. They all have respectable whiff/swing rates. Could be in for a break-out year.  As for Anderson, he's hurt and hasn't been able to ever put it together. I love the former Oakland duo and maybe Anderson comes back strong. I've been stashing him on my DL in a handful of leagues.

Derek Holland: He broke out in last year's playoffs, but I fear he might be overvalued because of it. I still think that Holland's five pitch arsenal is one of the better ones in the game and his control is only going to get better.

James McDonald: Still Waiting. McDonald was awful to open the season and awful to close it, but everything in between was stellar. Remove his 7.66 ERA in March/April and his 4.95 ERA in Sept/Oct and you've got a pretty solid pitcher.

Josh Johnson: I'm sure you can guess why.

Mike Minor: I've got a feeling that he'll be a mainstay on this list. With Atlanta's current rotation he's already undervalued. Toss in Delgado, Teheran and Vizcaino and Minor will be overlooked for the next ten years.

A few more and then guys that'll probably be on this list next year: Jon Niese, Phil Hughes, Brian Matusz, Kyle Drabek, Nathan Eovaldi.

Yah, this basically accounts for the majority of my pitching staffs in almost every league that I'm in.

The Blue Jays' Best Cutter

Well, we all know who had the best cutter in the Blue Jays organization for a long, long time. Then, the next best cutter was traded away for some Canadian kid that everyone's talking about these days.

Now, an organization that basically taught everyone the cutter is sorely lacking. Litsch and Cecil seem to be able to cut the ball a little bit, but neither player really relies on the pitch. Romero can work his fastball every which way, and Brandon Morrow did what? Watch out, American League!

As a tangent, I'll take a quick look at Morrow's cutter: 1.95 inches horizontal movement compared to 4.51 on his slider. The slider comes in around 88mph with 30 inches of drop (inc. gravity) with his cutter adding a couple more mph and subtracting about 10 inches of drop. With a sample size of about 100, it looks like Morrow was comfortable enough throwing it for strikes, and got batters to swing 51% of the time and swing-and-miss 12% of the time. Batters fouled off about 20% of the pitches and put another 20% into play. Thankfully, for the fly-ball machine, more than half of those balls in play were ground balls. 

Morrow's only thrown 100 of the pitches in game action so I feel good about his ability to improve his command and control of the pitch. Considering that Morrow's largely a fastball-slider pitcher, the cutter will go a long way to help him get opposite handers out and induce ground-balls. 

Casey Janssen provides an interesting case for the best cutter in the organization. He consistently throws it for strikes and often gets plenty of foul balls and called strikes despite his lacklustre 6.7% whiff rate. Ten-and-change percentage of his cutters are hit into the ground for relatively easy outs and he throws the pitch about 40% of the time. With great horizontal movement and good vertical movement, the 91mph is a dandy, despite average pitch values.

So who has the best cutter? Well, probably Janssen (or maybe even Morrow!) but I'm going to give the nod to the player received in the Halladay-deal, Kyle Drabek. In 2011, Drabek had huge issues with commanding his cutter, and tossed it for a ball 47% of the time, but the pitch is a 91.4mph beast that jumps out of his hand and barrels in on lefties.

Drabek's issues were across the board, not really cutter-specific, and he'll hopefully be able to fix 'em up this year. Considering his arsenal, especially with that cutter, he could still be a terrific player (if he can just throw fuckin' strikes).

Sorry for swearing, but I'm sure you feel me. For now, at least until I see Morrow's pitchf/x in 2012, I'm going to give it to Drabek. Brandon's got one hell of a shot to be a devastating pitcher this year, though. 

The Blue Jays Pitching: pfx-timey.

I figured I'd put together a little catalogue of PFX data from the 2011 season. The Blue Jays are an interesting group and the entire pitching staff seems to be shaping up nicely. Obviously there are questions, but the addition of Sergio Santos, Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero should keep things....interesting.

**All Data From Brooks Baseball and includes the effect of gravity to make it more discernible.

Starters:

Ricky Romero - Lefty, 6'0", 200lbs, 27 Years Old, Debut: 2009, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
15	11	0	32	32	225	7.12	3.2	1.04	0.242	79.20%	54.70%	13.20%	2.92	4.2	3.8	2.9

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	1606	48.00%	3.84	-17.39	92.72	2.83	6.04	152	1485
Sinker (SI)	738	22.00%	9.95	-22.62	92.31	2.85	6.06	116	1662
Slider (SL)	52	2.00%	-1.67	-33.51	85.31	2.53	6.22	335	171
Curveball (CU)	300	9.00%	-6.24	-53.43	77.79	2.47	6.33	340	1714
Changeup (CH)	629	19.00%	9.33	-33.98	85.7	2.6	6.25	82	1307

In terms of surface statistics, Romero was the Blue Jays' Best Pitcher in 2011. Romero relied heavily on his low-90's fastball (and sinker) to record outs. Although Romero's heat generally sat in the low-90s, he managed to garner six and seven percent whiff rates on his four-seamer and sinker, respectively. Toss in a solid amount of Called Strikes and Foul Balls on his two-fastballs, and you've got an effective primary offering. Both pitches exhibited heavy sink and set up his devastating change-up. Speaking of Romero's change, it's in the upper echelon of Major League change-ups and places Romero in the company of Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.


Brandon Morrow - Righty, 6'3", 200lbs, 27 Years Old, Debut: 2007, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
11	11	0	30	30	179.1	10.19	3.46	1.05	0.299	65.50%	36.00%	10.40%	4.72	3.64	3.53	3.4

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	1743	58.00%	-5.69	-11.86	94.57	-2.66	5.96	206	2104
Sinker (SI)	170	6.00%	-10.93	-15.82	92.5	-2.88	5.8	228	2180
Cutter (FC)	97	3.00%	1.95	-20.75	90.09	-2.14	6.15	174	1054
Slider (SL)	712	24.00%	4.51	-29.12	88.17	-2.51	6.03	106	449
Curveball (CU)	155	5.00%	4.77	-41.77	82.03	-2.38	6.13	29	961
Changeup (CH)	119	4.00%	-10.5	-25.09	86.69	-2.77	5.87	245	1627

Morrow trailed on Alexi Ogando, Justin Verlander, Davie Price, Michael Pineda, Edwin Jackson and Derek Holland in terms of average fastball velocity and his swinging strike rates reflect that. Yet, hitters continue to have average success against the pitch. For the second straight year, Morrow's posted an ERA a full run higher than his FIP or xFIP would indicate. After the heat, Morrow relies on his quality slider probably a bit too much for my liking (24%). Almost everyone believes that this is the year for Morrow which should come as no surprise given his improvement in walks-per-nine while maintaining his ridiculously high 10 K/9 rate.


Brett Cecil - Lefty, 6'1", 250lbs, 25 Years Old, Debut: 2009, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
4	11	0	20	20	123.2	6.33	3.06	1.6	0.267	73.30%	38.20%	13.30%	4.73	5.1	4.47	0.4

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	689	37.00%	5.45	-15.43	89.34	0.69	6.78	157	1953
Sinker (SI)	289	15.00%	10.49	-21.28	88.4	0.74	6.75	129	1806
Cutter (FC)	33	2.00%	4.47	-27.55	84.14	0.44	6.73	137	914
Slider (SL)	375	20.00%	1.51	-29.33	83.35	0.83	6.75	153	577
Curveball (CU)	111	6.00%	1.54	-42.14	78.46	0.79	6.84	26	521
Changeup (CH)	376	20.00%	10.77	-28.65	80.77	0.82	6.85	124	1577

Cecil saw his velocity take a dip of about a mph across the board in 2011. His pair of fastballs aren't exactly anything to write home about but his off-speed offerings are quite effective. While he rarely uses his curveball, it gets great depth and compliments his slider and change well. It's going to be tough for Cecil to put it all together in 2012, but it's definitely possible. All of his pitches show great movement and he gets fairly decent swing-and-miss rates with everything other than his pedestrian fastball.


Henderson Alvarez - Righty, 6'1", 210lbs, 21 Years Old, Debut: 2011, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
1	3	0	10	10	63.2	5.65	1.13	1.13	0.281	77.20%	53.50%	15.10%	3.53	3.97	3.38	1

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	273	28.00%	-7	-16.95	94.37	-2.19	6.18	222	1628
Sinker (SI)	433	44.00%	-11.06	-21.24	93.81	-2.39	6.05	248	1773
Cutter (FC)	19	2.00%	2.39	-25.73	88.39	-2.24	6.17	165	582
Slider (SL)	83	8.00%	7.05	-33.06	83.37	-2.23	6.23	96	732
Changeup (CH)	174	18.00%	-7.39	-29.8	86.06	-2.61	5.92	261	1060

Henderson Alvarez was a little bit of a rookie phenom despite his below-average strike-out rate. Alvarez succeeded despite his 5.65 K/9 thanks to a spectacular 1.13 BB/9 and a 93mph sinking fastball. Still just 21-years old, there's plenty of time for Alvarez to polish his secondary pitches. His change-up has a solid velocity differential and a great amount of sink and fade but his slider has yet to show up as a swing and miss pitch despite terrific movement on both planes. Heading forward, Alvarez's best pitch will continue to be his terrific change, but he's still a quality breaking pitch away from big-league success.

Dustin McGowan - Righty, 6'3", 230lbs, 30 Years Old, Debut: 2005, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
0	2	0	5	4	21	8.57	5.57	1.71	0.276	66.90%	50.00%	19.00%	6.43	5.6	4.38	-0.1

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	136	36.00%	-5.8	-12.51	93.93	-2.62	5.93	208	2051
Sinker (SI)	109	29.00%	-11.75	-16.85	93.14	-2.6	5.97	233	2154
Slider (SL)	80	21.00%	4.83	-28.45	87.26	-2.63	5.93	124	544
Curveball (CU)	19	5.00%	8.98	-41.13	80.66	-2.36	6.04	59	1062
Changeup (CH)	32	9.00%	-11.45	-24.03	87.06	-2.62	5.95	244	1778

At this point, I don't even know how to approach McGowan. He's regained some of the velocity, averaging about 94mph on the heater, and still possesses a solid two-seam sinking fastball but most of his pitches are average at best. Without a 95-96mph fastball, it's going to be difficult to predict McGowan's future.

Kyle Drabek - Righty, 6'1", 230lbs, 24 Years Old, Debut: 2010, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
4	5	0	18	14	78.2	5.83	6.29	1.14	0.31	69.00%	44.70%	12.70%	6.06	5.52	5.13	-0.2

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	543	37.00%	-3.82	-12.23	94.31	-1.95	6.36	199	2010
Sinker (SI)	387	26.00%	-10.41	-16.35	93.96	-2.05	6.29	228	2033
Cutter (FC)	265	18.00%	1.52	-20.37	91.38	-2.06	6.23	176	1009
Slider (SL)	27	2.00%	1.71	-28.92	85.15	-1.9	6.37	167	424
Curveball (CU)	124	8.00%	4.8	-40.81	82.11	-1.74	6.43	36	808
Changeup (CH)	119	8.00%	-11.81	-25.34	86.88	-2.29	6.14	247	1736

As far as pure stuff goes, Drabek still looks great. With a fastball that he can sink, cut, and let rip, it's hard to give up on him. Drabek's off-speed offerings still possess terrific, game-changing, swing-and-miss qualities, but he's always had issues translating stuff into results. Drabek's K/9 numbers continued their free-fall in 2011, while he posted a career-high 6.9 BB/9. Once the jewel of the Roy Halladay trade, Drabek has fallen behind both D'Arnaud and Gose (Michael Taylor->Brett Wallace).

With stuff like Drabek's, if he ever figures out how to locate his pitches, he'll become the ace that we all expected.

Relievers:

Sergio Santos - Righty, 6'3", 240lbs, 28 Years Old, Debut: 2010, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
4	5	30	63	0	63.1	13.07	4.12	0.85	0.269	74.30%	43.00%	11.30%	3.55	2.87	2.69	1.6

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	584	59.00%	-3.52	-12.51	96	-2.8	5.83	201	1844
Sinker (SI)	1	0.00%	-10.92	-16.27	94.37	-3.01	5.68	231	2235
Slider (SL)	317	32.00%	7.39	-34.63	85.77	-2.84	5.84	69	801
Changeup (CH)	90	9.00%	-10.92	-23.86	88.06	-2.95	5.59	245	1707

With a blazing fastball and an absolutely disgusting slider, it's hard not to like the Blue Jays' acquisition of Santos. His 13K-per-9 rate is amongst the best in the game, but Jays fans will certainly experience their fair share of nail biters in the 9th thanks to his 4+ BB/9. Santos is basically unhittable and should provide the Blue Jays with a shutdown closer at a reasonable price.

Darren Oliver - Lefty, 6'2", 200lbs, 41 Years Old, Debut: 1993, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
5	5	2	61	0	51	7.76	1.94	0.53	0.282	76.60%	37.90%	6.00%	2.29	2.77	3.24	1.3

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	485	51.00%	2.63	-18.15	88.97	1.48	5.98	162	1480
Sinker (SI)	169	18.00%	12.61	-18.51	89.86	1.48	6.05	129	2242
Curveball (CU)	285	30.00%	-7.13	-38.93	77.69	1.53	6.06	277	712
Changeup (CH)	13	1.00%	14.29	-27.72	83.71	1.5	6.05	112	1969

So, he's 41-years old. Oliver mixes his pitches well and he's not just a lefty-specialist. While he excels against lefties, he still posts very reasonable numbers against righties. All of his pitches get great sink and he'll continue to post solid GB-rates. However, dwindling ground-ball rates and rising line-drive rates may suggest that the end is near for Oliver despite his fourth consecutive season with an ERA under 3.00

Jason Frasor - Righty, 5'9", 180lbs, 34 Years Old, Debut: 2004, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
3	3	0	64	0	60	8.55	3.9	1.05	0.304	80.30%	37.00%	10.00%	3.6	4.09	4.04	0.3

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	768	71.00%	-4.48	-13.01	93.81	-1.97	5.92	202	1921
Slider (SL)	131	12.00%	5.54	-32.85	84.95	-2.22	5.75	84	561
Splitter (FS)	181	17.00%	-8.48	-30.27	87.19	-2	5.86	269	1168

Frasor became a different pitcher when he started throwing his split-fingered fastball back in 2009. The pitch has devastating sink and fade and should continue to help him strike-out around a batter per inning.

Francisco Cordero - Righty, 6'3", 245lbs, 36 Years Old, Debut: 1999, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
5	3	37	68	0	69.2	5.43	2.84	0.78	0.214	82.30%	50.00%	8.70%	2.45	4.02	4.14	0.1

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	442	41.00%	-7.68	-12.57	93.57	-0.64	6.48	210	2160
Cutter (FC)	323	30.00%	3.89	-24.34	87.77	-0.79	6.41	151	883
Curveball (CU)	108	10.00%	5.37	-41.77	79.62	-0.87	6.49	45	847
Changeup (CH)	205	19.00%	-10.08	-22.97	86.33	-1.16	6.17	233	1645

It's fairly clear that Cordero isn't the pitcher that he once was. He's not striking out 12-per-9 (2007) or 10-per-9 (2008), and not even 7-per-9 (2010). Cordero is striking out about five and a half per 9, which isn't exactly good news for the future of the former closer. Surprisingly though in 2011, Cordero posted a 2.45 ERA, so what gives? Well, a lot of luck (.214 BABIP - 82% strand rate) and a few intriguing changes (sub-3 BB/9, 50% GB Rate)

Cordero's FIP and xFIP were in the fours, and realistically, he probably won't come close to repeating an ERA south of 3.00. But the drastic change in his batted ball profile is something worth noting. Cordero posted career lows in Line-Drive Rate, and Fly Ball Rate to go along with a career high ground-ball rate which should play well in Rogers Centre.

It seems as though Cordero has been able to adjust to his fastball losing about 3mph over the past few years. After routinely throwing the heat sixty-plus percent of the time, Cordero saw his fastball usage plummet to 37%. The difference was made up by his surprisingly effective change-up and the addition of a curveball.


Casey Janssen - Righty, 6'3", 225lbs, 30 Years Old, Debut: 2006, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
6	0	2	55	0	55.2	8.57	2.26	0.32	0.296	81.40%	47.30%	4.30%	2.26	2.45	3.04	1.3

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	252	29.00%	-0.9	-14.08	92.78	-1.25	5.35	187	1678
Sinker (SI)	104	12.00%	-6.65	-19.95	92.63	-1.27	5.29	227	1299
Cutter (FC)	345	40.00%	2.78	-21.05	91.32	-1.29	5.33	162	912
Slider (SL)	36	4.00%	6.1	-31.84	86.2	-1.25	5.44	85	672
Curveball (CU)	121	14.00%	15.42	-47.99	76.9	-1.2	5.65	63	1885
Changeup (CH)	6	1	-6.26	-23.89	84.66	-1.19	5.57	220	1247

It seems as though plenty of Blue Jays pitchers flash three different fastballs. Janssen threw his four-seamer, sinker and cutter almost 80% of the time and had relative success. According to Pitchf/x values, all three of Janssen's fastballs played positively and only his slider was a negative pitch. He garnered a solid amount of whiffs with both breaking pitches and should continue to be a solid righty option out of the pen. A repeat of his 2011 2.26 ERA might be pushing it, but with a great GB to FB ratio and good stuff, a low-3.00s ERA should be in store.


Jesse Litsch - Righty, 6'1", 235lbs, 27 Years Old, Debut: 2007, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
6	3	1	28	8	75	7.92	3.36	1.2	0.281	69.80%	44.20%	14.90%	4.44	4.24	3.63	0.7

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	381	30.00%	-1.76	-16.76	89.76	-1.85	6.07	192	1572
Sinker (SI)	333	27.00%	-9.35	-19.69	89.8	-1.86	6.04	229	1758
Cutter (FC)	18	1.00%	3.36	-16.8	89.54	-1.85	6.05	169	1616
Slider (SL)	360	29.00%	3.1	-32.85	83.97	-2.2	5.81	94	266
Curveball (CU)	56	4.00%	7.97	-49.88	77.55	-2	6.01	35	1446
Changeup (CH)	108	9.00%	-5.52	-32.46	82.56	-2.18	5.93	258	778

Litsch certainly doesn't overpower batters, but he does a decent job confusing them. The horizontal spread between his sinker and cutter that both come in at 90ish mph is over a foot. All of his pitches play about average, with his fastball and cutter leading the pack.


Carlos Villanueva - Righty, 6'2", 235lbs, 28 Years Old, Debut: 2006, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
6	4	0	33	13	107	5.72	2.69	0.93	0.271	72.80%	35.60%	7.50%	4.04	4.1	4.48	1.1

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	645	38.00%	-2.95	-12.63	89.71	-1.26	6.73	192	2139
Sinker (SI)	145	8.00%	-8.49	-16.14	89.13	-1.7	6.46	215	2027
Slider (SL)	342	20.00%	5.02	-34.03	82.62	-1.57	6.52	96	508
Curveball (CU)	227	13.00%	10.03	-51.27	73.6	-1.46	6.6	52	1305
Changeup (CH)	353	21.00%	-5.31	-25.22	81.93	-1.63	6.48	213	1289

Villanueva's K/9 sank in 2011 to a career low 5.72 batters-per-9. Shockingly, the downturn came a year after he posted a career high 11.45 K/9 in his final year in Milwaukee. While some of it can be attributed to workload and role, his offspeed offerings were much more hittable. Villanueva saw his O-Contact jump to 72% after posting consecutive 44.2% seasons. Villanueva also followed up a career high 12.8% Swinging Strike rate in 2010 with a career low 7.5% rate in Toronto. While in Milwaukee, Villanueva posted a wSL/c and wCU/c of 1.21 and 1.92, respectively. In Toronto, the pitches lost vertical movement in favour of horizontal movement and returned to earth with a 0.62 wSL/c and a 0.44 wCU/c. With a return to a permanent bullpen role, I wouldn't be surprised to Villanueva regain his 2010 form.

Luis Perez - Lefty, 6'0", 210lbs, 27 Years Old, Debut: 2011, Active.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
3	3	0	37	4	65	7.48	3.74	1.25	0.327	70.70%	60.30%	18.40%	5.12	4.64	3.79	0

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Sinker (SI)	778	73.00%	14.32	-21.95	93.34	1.39	5.8	110	2168
Slider (SL)	202	19.00%	0.04	-36.36	82.87	1.26	5.91	17	305
Changeup (CH)	86	8.00%	8.54	-26.3	83.41	1.26	6.02	129	1414

Perez's line was pretty ugly, but a lot of that can be attributed to his 18.4% HR/FB rate and there's no way in hell that he doesn't regress. His fastball was atrocious despite quality movement and a good bit of zip.


Chad Beck - Righty, 6'4", 255lbs, 27 Years Old, Debut: 2011, 40-Man.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
0	0	0	3	0	2.1	11.57	0	0	0.2	100.00%	40.00%	0.00%	0	0.45	1.53	0.1

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	29	78.00%	-3.8	-11.23	95.75	-2.13	6.13	199	2030
Slider (SL)	5	14.00%	4.9	-24.4	87.27	-2.25	6.14	148	941
Changeup (CH)	3	8.00%	-8.02	-23.64	88.6	-2.18	5.95	235	1436

We didn't see a lot of Beck, but a 96mph fastball ain't all that shabby. His fastball runs pretty straight on both planes, but he should be able to get away with it. He gets good depth on both his slider and change and should end up being a useful piece of the pn.


Joel Carreno - Righty, 6'2", 220lbs, 25 Years Old, Debut: 2011, 40-Man.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
1	0	0	11	0	15.2	8.04	2.3	0.57	0.25	95.60%	53.70%	7.10%	1.15	2.83	3.13	0.2

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	28	13.00%	-4.63	-15.18	92.01	-2.48	5.95	205	1758
Sinker (SI)	64	29.00%	-11.16	-20.69	92.33	-2.42	5.82	243	1823
Curveball (CU)	117	53.00%	8.84	-37.77	80.96	-2.42	6.03	75	965
Changeup (CH)	12	5.00%	-12.66	-24.57	86.15	-2.45	5.69	246	1868

Carreno throws his curveball more than 50% of the time which is quite strange. He shows good control with it and follows it up with a quality fastball and sinker combination. While his change-up certainly has potential in terms of movement, he's still not quite comfortable with it.


Danny Farquhar - Righty, 5'9", 180lbs, 25 Years Old, Debut: 2011, 40-Man.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
0	0	0	3	0	2	4.5	9	0	0.5	33.30%	25.00%	0.00%	13.5	5.03	6.28	0

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	10	15.00%	-14.49	-16.64	92.12	-1.73	5.17	237	2393
Sinker (SI)	35	54.00%	-15.39	-27.89	91.38	-3.38	3.4	275	2280
Cutter (FC)	3	5.00%	-2.48	-21.73	89.72	-1.74	5.11	209	1009
Slider (SL)	12	18.00%	3.84	-31.77	83.06	-3	3.59	111	345
Curveball (CU)	2	3.00%	1.91	-42.06	79.77	-1.84	5.11	11	700
Changeup (CH)	3	5.00%	-13.74	-26.93	84.15	-2.31	4.51	250	1948

Basically a sinker / slider pitcher, Farquhar desperately needs to work on his change-up or cutter. His sinker and slider get quality movement, but he's still just barely topping 90 with the pitches.


Trystan Magnuson - Righty, 6'7", 220lbs, 26 Years Old, Debut: 2011, 40-Man.

W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
0	0	0	9	0	14.2	6.75	3.07	1.84	0.261	57.00%	32.70%	12.00%	6.14	5.21	4.69	-0.1

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	146	46.00%	-6.11	-13.4	93.57	-0.96	6.61	207	1954
Sinker (SI)	32	10.00%	-13.15	-15.41	92.7	-1.11	6.42	231	2370
Cutter (FC)	35	11.00%	-0.06	-20.23	88.77	-0.88	6.77	184	1225
Slider (SL)	91	29.00%	3.24	-25.98	87.5	-0.87	6.72	150	675
Changeup (CH)	11	3.00%	-11.3	-24.31	84.74	-0.99	6.59	237	1708

Toronto reacquired Magnuson and Farquhar from Oakland after dealing them for Rajai Davis after the 2010 season. Magnuson has a pretty straight fastball that clocks around 94mph and a plethora secondary pitches. He's effective with the slider and gets a quality amount of whiffs.


Evan Crawford - Lefty, 6'2", 190lbs, 25 Years Old, Debut: None, 40-Man.

Pitch	Count	Frequency	H. Mvt	V. Mvt	Mph	H. Rel	V. Rel	Spin Θ	RPM
Fourseam (FA)	41	60.00%	7.15	-15.07	91.7	2.2	6.15	147	2015
Slider (SL)	17	25.00%	0.81	-34.49	84.18	2.13	6.15	54	304
Curveball (CU)	10	15.00%	-5.85	-52.08	76.12	2.21	6.25	338	1445

Crawford's data isn't from MLB but rather Fall Ball in Arizona. He's a quality lefty and should provide Toronto with a left-handed safety net for the pen. He doesn't overwhelm batters but shows a solid fastball with two pretty good breaking pitches.