I'm in a league. You keep players, thirty of 'em, for as long as you see fit. The original draft order was snake, but to keep things fair (and it's worked) we just do a straight draft (non-snake) with the last place team drafting first in each round. The position requirements are three of every position with eight outfielders and 9 SPs with 8 RPs.
So far, here's the buckets:
Sure Things, Gotta Keep
Matt Kemp - OF
Carlos Gonzalez - OF
Dustin Pedroia - 2B
Ian Kinsler - 2B
Giancarlo Stanton - OF
Clayton Kershaw - SP
Starlin Castro - SS
Carlos Santana - C
Cole Hamels - SP
Pablo Sandoval - 3B,1B
David Price - SP
Adrian Beltre - 3B
David Wright - 3B
Elvis Andrus - SS
Yovani Gallardo- SP
Hunter Pence - OF
Jonathan Papelbon - RP
John Axford - RP
Drew Storen - RP
Mike Napoli - C
Shin-Soo Choo - OF
Jesus Montero - C
Drew Stubbs - OF
Brandon Beachy - SP
Cory Luebke - RP,SP
Derek Holland - SP
Brandon Belt - 1B, OF
Catcher: 3/3
1st Base: 1/3
2nd Base: 2/3
3rd Base: 3/3
Shortstop: 2/3
Outfield: 6/8
Starting Pitcher: 7/9
Relief Pitcher: 3/8
Kinda Maybe Sorta, I Wanna
Ike Davis - I desperately need first basemen, and I really like Davis despite this whole Valley Fever crap.
Logan Morrison - LoMo is certainly my kind of player and he's probably in a fight for the third keeper spot. I value him a bit more than the rest of the guys, so he might be tossed.
Derek Jeter - It's really hard to let go of Jeter, despite hating him.
Nick Markakis - I am giving up on Markakis this year.
Colby Rasmus - I wanna believe, but can't.
Chase Utley - Like Jeter, Utley was one of my original draftees and we have multiple DL spots. I'm just not sure if he's keepable at this point over guys like Davis and Morrison.
Carlos Marmol - Saves are always a pain in the ass to come across, especially year to year.
Aroldis Chapman - If Chapman didn't have options left, I'd probably keep him. He's got all sorts of upside, but I can't deal with him starting in the minors.
Joe Nathan - He'll probably get a few saves, but I don't even think he's the second best pitcher in the Rangers' Pen.
Brian Matusz - He's throwing hard again and he's young. It's hard to cut bait after keeping him last year.
Neftali Feliz - Feliz has always been kept and I really wish they would've started him years ago. This shoulder stuff worries me.
Adam Dunn - He's struck out once this spring and I gotta good feeling about a nice little bounce back. One of my selections in the earlier drafts.
Edwin Jackson - I think he does well in Washington. Who knows, though.
Dayan Vicideo - He's got power, but at this point, I can't keep him.
Brett Myers - I should be able to find cheap saves, I'd imagine. Can't keep him.
Andrew Cashner - Cashner is very intriguing to me. I like his chances of absolutely dominating in the San Diego Pen for a very, very long time.
Mike Montgomery - Montgomery had an awful year, but I still think he's one of the better lefty arms in the minors.
Edison Volquez - I'm high on him, but not that high.
Roy Oswalt - Ugh.
Naw, Can't Do It
Tim Stauffer, Ryan Dempster, Jonathon Niese, Mike Leake, Koji Uehara, Aaron Harang, Bartolo Colon, Derek Lowe, Peter Bourjos, Emilio Bonafacio, Carlos Pena, James Loney, Alcides Escobar, Russell Martin, Paul Goldschmidt (cannot keep.)
So who do you keep? I need three guys from the Maybe List (or thirty guys in total if you think I'm a moron)
Keep in mind, I am keeping closers. There is no talking me out of it. I gotta do it.
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Friday, 23 March 2012
Monday, 19 March 2012
Children At Play
Talk to any prospect junkie and he'll tell you that age versus level is probably the best indicator of future big-league success. Every statistic a minor leaguer accumulates must be viewed through the paradigm of age versus level. Yet, for some reason, I find myself almost completely disregarding age versus level once a player reaches the major leagues and accumulates some service time.
Starlin Castro managed to hit .300 as a 20-year old for the Chicago Cubs in 2010 and then followed it up with a .307 average in 2011. Entering his age-22 season, a season in which most shortstops would be lucky to make their major league début, I've basically pencilled Castro in to repeat his 2011 line. Sure, he'll get a little better and maybe he'll develop a smidgen more power, but I've basically got him chalked down for a .300/.345/.440 season or almost no progression.
Why?
I haven't the faintest idea.
Had Castro showed the power growth while maintaining his average in the minor leagues, I'd be predicting big things, but I have a hard time extrapolating major league data along the typical ageing curve. Castro should continue to improve for at least a few more years before reaching his peak, but I cannot bring myself to buy into this improvement on Draft Day.
What about Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton?
Again, I'm left assuming that he'll probably continue doing exactly what he's doing, even though every piece of mathematical evidence suggests that he'll basically improve in all facets as a 22-year old.
Stanton hit 34 HR and posted a .262/.356/.537 triple-slash, and rather than progress that along the ageing curve, I'm simply sitting here thinking, "ehhh, that's probably the kind of player he'll be."
I'm not sure if I'm hedging my long-term bets by assuming that Stanton will remain essentially stagnant for the entirety of his peak, but I feel like it's a leap of faith to predict gradual improvement for the next three or so years.
Once Stanton posted a couple great seasons, I decided that was Mike Stanton. As a contrast though, I have yet to declare Jason Heyward as Jason Heyward. Heyward and Stanton are about the same age and have played roughly the same amount of games. Yet, I have absolutely no problem predicting Heyward taking huge strides in 2012.
I'm not sure if it's ego on my part or just the mathematical certainty that each progressive step beyond the average is exponentially more difficult to achieve, but it's something. On one hand, I assume that every player will reach (and not exceed) the potential I predicted exactly. Stanton and Castro have reached that potential while Heyward hasn't. On the other hand, statistically speaking, it's far easier for Heyward to take the step from good to very good than it is for Castro and Stanton to make the jump from very good to superstars.
If I viewed fantasy baseball like a video-game, I'd absolutely view Stanton and Castro as high-potential players that'd continue to improve throughout their lifetime contracts signed with my made-up video-game team. But for whatever reason, I just can't do that.
Starlin Castro managed to hit .300 as a 20-year old for the Chicago Cubs in 2010 and then followed it up with a .307 average in 2011. Entering his age-22 season, a season in which most shortstops would be lucky to make their major league début, I've basically pencilled Castro in to repeat his 2011 line. Sure, he'll get a little better and maybe he'll develop a smidgen more power, but I've basically got him chalked down for a .300/.345/.440 season or almost no progression.
Why?
I haven't the faintest idea.
Had Castro showed the power growth while maintaining his average in the minor leagues, I'd be predicting big things, but I have a hard time extrapolating major league data along the typical ageing curve. Castro should continue to improve for at least a few more years before reaching his peak, but I cannot bring myself to buy into this improvement on Draft Day.
What about Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton?
Again, I'm left assuming that he'll probably continue doing exactly what he's doing, even though every piece of mathematical evidence suggests that he'll basically improve in all facets as a 22-year old.
Stanton hit 34 HR and posted a .262/.356/.537 triple-slash, and rather than progress that along the ageing curve, I'm simply sitting here thinking, "ehhh, that's probably the kind of player he'll be."
I'm not sure if I'm hedging my long-term bets by assuming that Stanton will remain essentially stagnant for the entirety of his peak, but I feel like it's a leap of faith to predict gradual improvement for the next three or so years.
Once Stanton posted a couple great seasons, I decided that was Mike Stanton. As a contrast though, I have yet to declare Jason Heyward as Jason Heyward. Heyward and Stanton are about the same age and have played roughly the same amount of games. Yet, I have absolutely no problem predicting Heyward taking huge strides in 2012.
I'm not sure if it's ego on my part or just the mathematical certainty that each progressive step beyond the average is exponentially more difficult to achieve, but it's something. On one hand, I assume that every player will reach (and not exceed) the potential I predicted exactly. Stanton and Castro have reached that potential while Heyward hasn't. On the other hand, statistically speaking, it's far easier for Heyward to take the step from good to very good than it is for Castro and Stanton to make the jump from very good to superstars.
If I viewed fantasy baseball like a video-game, I'd absolutely view Stanton and Castro as high-potential players that'd continue to improve throughout their lifetime contracts signed with my made-up video-game team. But for whatever reason, I just can't do that.
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Why I'm Awful At Fantasy Baseball
I pour hours upon hours into studying, regressing, formulating and drafting fantasy baseball players. Every goddamn year: Spreadsheet, R, Correlation, Ranking Inefficiencies, Draft, Trade. Cry.
And, I think I may have finally found my problem. Quite simply, the fantasy Gods hate me. Whether sleepers or prospects, the players that I draft simply post atrocious numbers in the year that I acquire them. But, after Spreadsheeting, R-ing, Correlation-ing, and Ranking Inefficiencies-ing of my previous Drafts, I realized that joining my team doesn't permanently cripple a player's value. Joining my team only destroys a player's value for the year in which they're on my squad. They're fine after that, and to be honest, they actually achieve and often exceed expectations the year after that.
So, with that said, I have but a single question: Does it make sense for me to simply re-draft the guys that I drafted last year knowing this? I'm tempted to believe that the fantasy gods would only further smite these players, but I'm a bit of a pessimist.
It's nice to know that I hold the fate of Shin-Soo Choo's career in my hands, though.
And, I think I may have finally found my problem. Quite simply, the fantasy Gods hate me. Whether sleepers or prospects, the players that I draft simply post atrocious numbers in the year that I acquire them. But, after Spreadsheeting, R-ing, Correlation-ing, and Ranking Inefficiencies-ing of my previous Drafts, I realized that joining my team doesn't permanently cripple a player's value. Joining my team only destroys a player's value for the year in which they're on my squad. They're fine after that, and to be honest, they actually achieve and often exceed expectations the year after that.
So, with that said, I have but a single question: Does it make sense for me to simply re-draft the guys that I drafted last year knowing this? I'm tempted to believe that the fantasy gods would only further smite these players, but I'm a bit of a pessimist.
It's nice to know that I hold the fate of Shin-Soo Choo's career in my hands, though.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)