I'm in a league. You keep players, thirty of 'em, for as long as you see fit. The original draft order was snake, but to keep things fair (and it's worked) we just do a straight draft (non-snake) with the last place team drafting first in each round. The position requirements are three of every position with eight outfielders and 9 SPs with 8 RPs.
So far, here's the buckets:
Sure Things, Gotta Keep
Matt Kemp - OF
Carlos Gonzalez - OF
Dustin Pedroia - 2B
Ian Kinsler - 2B
Giancarlo Stanton - OF
Clayton Kershaw - SP
Starlin Castro - SS
Carlos Santana - C
Cole Hamels - SP
Pablo Sandoval - 3B,1B
David Price - SP
Adrian Beltre - 3B
David Wright - 3B
Elvis Andrus - SS
Yovani Gallardo- SP
Hunter Pence - OF
Jonathan Papelbon - RP
John Axford - RP
Drew Storen - RP
Mike Napoli - C
Shin-Soo Choo - OF
Jesus Montero - C
Drew Stubbs - OF
Brandon Beachy - SP
Cory Luebke - RP,SP
Derek Holland - SP
Brandon Belt - 1B, OF
Catcher: 3/3
1st Base: 1/3
2nd Base: 2/3
3rd Base: 3/3
Shortstop: 2/3
Outfield: 6/8
Starting Pitcher: 7/9
Relief Pitcher: 3/8
Kinda Maybe Sorta, I Wanna
Ike Davis - I desperately need first basemen, and I really like Davis despite this whole Valley Fever crap.
Logan Morrison - LoMo is certainly my kind of player and he's probably in a fight for the third keeper spot. I value him a bit more than the rest of the guys, so he might be tossed.
Derek Jeter - It's really hard to let go of Jeter, despite hating him.
Nick Markakis - I am giving up on Markakis this year.
Colby Rasmus - I wanna believe, but can't.
Chase Utley - Like Jeter, Utley was one of my original draftees and we have multiple DL spots. I'm just not sure if he's keepable at this point over guys like Davis and Morrison.
Carlos Marmol - Saves are always a pain in the ass to come across, especially year to year.
Aroldis Chapman - If Chapman didn't have options left, I'd probably keep him. He's got all sorts of upside, but I can't deal with him starting in the minors.
Joe Nathan - He'll probably get a few saves, but I don't even think he's the second best pitcher in the Rangers' Pen.
Brian Matusz - He's throwing hard again and he's young. It's hard to cut bait after keeping him last year.
Neftali Feliz - Feliz has always been kept and I really wish they would've started him years ago. This shoulder stuff worries me.
Adam Dunn - He's struck out once this spring and I gotta good feeling about a nice little bounce back. One of my selections in the earlier drafts.
Edwin Jackson - I think he does well in Washington. Who knows, though.
Dayan Vicideo - He's got power, but at this point, I can't keep him.
Brett Myers - I should be able to find cheap saves, I'd imagine. Can't keep him.
Andrew Cashner - Cashner is very intriguing to me. I like his chances of absolutely dominating in the San Diego Pen for a very, very long time.
Mike Montgomery - Montgomery had an awful year, but I still think he's one of the better lefty arms in the minors.
Edison Volquez - I'm high on him, but not that high.
Roy Oswalt - Ugh.
Naw, Can't Do It
Tim Stauffer, Ryan Dempster, Jonathon Niese, Mike Leake, Koji Uehara, Aaron Harang, Bartolo Colon, Derek Lowe, Peter Bourjos, Emilio Bonafacio, Carlos Pena, James Loney, Alcides Escobar, Russell Martin, Paul Goldschmidt (cannot keep.)
So who do you keep? I need three guys from the Maybe List (or thirty guys in total if you think I'm a moron)
Keep in mind, I am keeping closers. There is no talking me out of it. I gotta do it.
Friday, 23 March 2012
Monday, 19 March 2012
Children At Play
Talk to any prospect junkie and he'll tell you that age versus level is probably the best indicator of future big-league success. Every statistic a minor leaguer accumulates must be viewed through the paradigm of age versus level. Yet, for some reason, I find myself almost completely disregarding age versus level once a player reaches the major leagues and accumulates some service time.
Starlin Castro managed to hit .300 as a 20-year old for the Chicago Cubs in 2010 and then followed it up with a .307 average in 2011. Entering his age-22 season, a season in which most shortstops would be lucky to make their major league début, I've basically pencilled Castro in to repeat his 2011 line. Sure, he'll get a little better and maybe he'll develop a smidgen more power, but I've basically got him chalked down for a .300/.345/.440 season or almost no progression.
Why?
I haven't the faintest idea.
Had Castro showed the power growth while maintaining his average in the minor leagues, I'd be predicting big things, but I have a hard time extrapolating major league data along the typical ageing curve. Castro should continue to improve for at least a few more years before reaching his peak, but I cannot bring myself to buy into this improvement on Draft Day.
What about Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton?
Again, I'm left assuming that he'll probably continue doing exactly what he's doing, even though every piece of mathematical evidence suggests that he'll basically improve in all facets as a 22-year old.
Stanton hit 34 HR and posted a .262/.356/.537 triple-slash, and rather than progress that along the ageing curve, I'm simply sitting here thinking, "ehhh, that's probably the kind of player he'll be."
I'm not sure if I'm hedging my long-term bets by assuming that Stanton will remain essentially stagnant for the entirety of his peak, but I feel like it's a leap of faith to predict gradual improvement for the next three or so years.
Once Stanton posted a couple great seasons, I decided that was Mike Stanton. As a contrast though, I have yet to declare Jason Heyward as Jason Heyward. Heyward and Stanton are about the same age and have played roughly the same amount of games. Yet, I have absolutely no problem predicting Heyward taking huge strides in 2012.
I'm not sure if it's ego on my part or just the mathematical certainty that each progressive step beyond the average is exponentially more difficult to achieve, but it's something. On one hand, I assume that every player will reach (and not exceed) the potential I predicted exactly. Stanton and Castro have reached that potential while Heyward hasn't. On the other hand, statistically speaking, it's far easier for Heyward to take the step from good to very good than it is for Castro and Stanton to make the jump from very good to superstars.
If I viewed fantasy baseball like a video-game, I'd absolutely view Stanton and Castro as high-potential players that'd continue to improve throughout their lifetime contracts signed with my made-up video-game team. But for whatever reason, I just can't do that.
Starlin Castro managed to hit .300 as a 20-year old for the Chicago Cubs in 2010 and then followed it up with a .307 average in 2011. Entering his age-22 season, a season in which most shortstops would be lucky to make their major league début, I've basically pencilled Castro in to repeat his 2011 line. Sure, he'll get a little better and maybe he'll develop a smidgen more power, but I've basically got him chalked down for a .300/.345/.440 season or almost no progression.
Why?
I haven't the faintest idea.
Had Castro showed the power growth while maintaining his average in the minor leagues, I'd be predicting big things, but I have a hard time extrapolating major league data along the typical ageing curve. Castro should continue to improve for at least a few more years before reaching his peak, but I cannot bring myself to buy into this improvement on Draft Day.
What about Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton?
Again, I'm left assuming that he'll probably continue doing exactly what he's doing, even though every piece of mathematical evidence suggests that he'll basically improve in all facets as a 22-year old.
Stanton hit 34 HR and posted a .262/.356/.537 triple-slash, and rather than progress that along the ageing curve, I'm simply sitting here thinking, "ehhh, that's probably the kind of player he'll be."
I'm not sure if I'm hedging my long-term bets by assuming that Stanton will remain essentially stagnant for the entirety of his peak, but I feel like it's a leap of faith to predict gradual improvement for the next three or so years.
Once Stanton posted a couple great seasons, I decided that was Mike Stanton. As a contrast though, I have yet to declare Jason Heyward as Jason Heyward. Heyward and Stanton are about the same age and have played roughly the same amount of games. Yet, I have absolutely no problem predicting Heyward taking huge strides in 2012.
I'm not sure if it's ego on my part or just the mathematical certainty that each progressive step beyond the average is exponentially more difficult to achieve, but it's something. On one hand, I assume that every player will reach (and not exceed) the potential I predicted exactly. Stanton and Castro have reached that potential while Heyward hasn't. On the other hand, statistically speaking, it's far easier for Heyward to take the step from good to very good than it is for Castro and Stanton to make the jump from very good to superstars.
If I viewed fantasy baseball like a video-game, I'd absolutely view Stanton and Castro as high-potential players that'd continue to improve throughout their lifetime contracts signed with my made-up video-game team. But for whatever reason, I just can't do that.
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Why I'm Awful At Fantasy Baseball
I pour hours upon hours into studying, regressing, formulating and drafting fantasy baseball players. Every goddamn year: Spreadsheet, R, Correlation, Ranking Inefficiencies, Draft, Trade. Cry.
And, I think I may have finally found my problem. Quite simply, the fantasy Gods hate me. Whether sleepers or prospects, the players that I draft simply post atrocious numbers in the year that I acquire them. But, after Spreadsheeting, R-ing, Correlation-ing, and Ranking Inefficiencies-ing of my previous Drafts, I realized that joining my team doesn't permanently cripple a player's value. Joining my team only destroys a player's value for the year in which they're on my squad. They're fine after that, and to be honest, they actually achieve and often exceed expectations the year after that.
So, with that said, I have but a single question: Does it make sense for me to simply re-draft the guys that I drafted last year knowing this? I'm tempted to believe that the fantasy gods would only further smite these players, but I'm a bit of a pessimist.
It's nice to know that I hold the fate of Shin-Soo Choo's career in my hands, though.
And, I think I may have finally found my problem. Quite simply, the fantasy Gods hate me. Whether sleepers or prospects, the players that I draft simply post atrocious numbers in the year that I acquire them. But, after Spreadsheeting, R-ing, Correlation-ing, and Ranking Inefficiencies-ing of my previous Drafts, I realized that joining my team doesn't permanently cripple a player's value. Joining my team only destroys a player's value for the year in which they're on my squad. They're fine after that, and to be honest, they actually achieve and often exceed expectations the year after that.
So, with that said, I have but a single question: Does it make sense for me to simply re-draft the guys that I drafted last year knowing this? I'm tempted to believe that the fantasy gods would only further smite these players, but I'm a bit of a pessimist.
It's nice to know that I hold the fate of Shin-Soo Choo's career in my hands, though.
Monday, 12 March 2012
My Sad Little Keeper
Matusz notched a 2.7 WAR in 2010 and although his numbers weren't staggering, he closed out the 2010 season better than anyone could've expected. In August, September and October, Brian Matusz posted ERAs of 2.43, 1.89 and 1.50, respectively. He barely issued one hit or walk per inning during the stretch run and posted 52 strike-outs in 62 IP.
And then, 2011 happened.
Brian Matusz was downright awful.
In 2009, Matusz fastball and sinker averaged about 92 mph. By 2010, Matusz fastball and sinker had dropped to just over 90 mph which was reflected strongly in his whiff rates. His fastball induced a swing and miss 9% of the time in 2009 but dropped to 6.8% in 2010. Additionally, his sinker went from 7% to nearly 3% over the same span. By 2011, Matusz was only averaging 88.6 mph on the heater and 89 mph on the sinker and his swing-and-miss rates continued to topple: 4% on the Fastball and 0% on the Sinker (player card).
Fast-forward to 2012 and Spring Training is underway. While early reports should always be taken with a grain of salt, it appears as though Matusz' velocity may have returned despite his average results. In six innings, opposing hitters are still teeing off on him to the tune of a .360 batting average, but he's striking out more than a batter per inning and has yet to issue a walk. After a shaky debut, Matusz bounced back on Saturday against the Phillies. Matusz went four scoreless innings while giving up only three hits and no earned runs.
More importantly,
Matusz, whose velocity dropped into the mid-80s last season, had radar guns behind home plate consistently showing him in the 90-91-mph range, and his fastball peaked at 94 in the fourth inning.So, that's that. I'm certainly not keeping Matusz, but he seems like a nice little gamble to rebound strongly. Heading into 2011, there was all sorts of hype around the kid because of his stellar finish to 2010. Considering that Matusz has really only established his ceiling as a low-4.00s ERA pitcher, very few fantasy baseball players are willing to gamble on him, but if his ceiling is what we saw to close out 2010, he's certainly worth a buck or two.
Sunday, 11 March 2012
How Exactly Did This Happen?
Alex Anthopoulos has done marvelous things in Toronto but he's not just the General Manager that found a suitable trade partner for Roy Halladay; nor is he the GM that found a couple of suckers to take on Alex Rios and Vernon Wells. Upon his ascension to the GM position, Anthopoulos revamped the Blue Jays scouting department and quickly became the GM destined to draft talent over experience. AA increased the Jays' area scouting staff to twenty-five, while providing the funds for five regional cross-checkers. Anthopoulos was destined to draft high-ceiling kids, and somehow, this happened in just two years:
Noah Syndergaard
Born: 8/29/1992
Drafted/Signed: 1st Round, 2010, HS
Baseball Prospectus: 93rd Overall
Minor League Ball: 67th Overall
There's something downright amazing about a 6'5, 200lb, 20-year old that can hit the high-90s with projectible secondary pitches.
Daniel Norris
Born: 4/25/1993
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2011, HS
Baseball Prospectus: 54th Overall
Baseball America: 91st Overall
Minor League Ball: 70th Overall
A steal of a deal in the second round, Norris is yet another high-schooler with huge upside. He sits in the low-to-mid 90s from the left-side.
Justin Nicolino
Born: 11/22/1991
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2010, HS
Minor League Ball: 68th Overall
Another lefty, Nicolino shows quite a bit of polish and pitchability. At 6'3"/160, he's got room to fill out and should advance quickly. Could end up being a very good middle-of-the-rotation lefty.
Drew Hutchison
Born: 8/22/1990
Drafted/Signed: 15th Round, 2009, HS
Minor League Ball: 73rd Overall
The fourth high school arm, Hutchinson has really out-pitched all expectations. Another quality middle-of-the-rotation arm with the kind of polish you'd never expect from a high school draftee.
Aaron Sanchez
Born: 7/1/1992
Drafted/Signed: Supplemental, 2010, HS
And again with the High School arms. Sanchez didn't have a great debut, but the high-ceiling arm is still apparently attached to his body. Has a solid fastball that should only improve and a curve-ball that projects out pretty well.
Deck McGuire
Born: 6/23/1989
Drafted/Signed: 1st Round, 2010, College
Minor League Ball: 80th Overall
It's a college arm! I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see McGuire log some innings in Toronto this year as he's fairly close to where he needs to be. McGuire projects as a solid piece in any rotation. Gets good movement on the fastball and shows the ability to pitch.
Asher Wojiechowski
Born: 12/21/1988
Drafted/Signed: Supplemental, 2010, College
Two College arms in a row! Asher still has quite a bit of upside but lost velocity and suffered through a whole lotta awful as the Jays attempted to change his delivery. Wojciechowski will fit nicely in the back end of the rotation or as a power arm out of the pen.
Joe Musgrove
Born: 12/04/1992
Drafted/Signed: 2011, Supplemental, HS
Yah, so he's 6'5"/230 at 19-years old. He's got great velocity and a good breaking ball.
Kevin Comer
Born: 8/1/92
Drafted/Signed: 1st Round, 2011, HS
Thank God for Miguel Olivo, amirite? Comer was clocked around 95mph and was one of a handful of Blue Jays first round draft picks in 2011. It was a big risk by AA, but it paid off. I'm pretty excited by the kid.
Adonys Cardona
Born: 1/16/1994
Drafted/Signed: Venezuela, 2010
The Jays gave Cardona $2.8M and if his pro-debut was any indication, they made the right choice. He's got all sorts of room to fill out and add velocity. Great fastball, great curve-ball, and a whole lotta upside.
John Stilson
Born: 7/28/1990
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2011, College
Stilson has a great fastball and a terrific change-up with a couple breaking balls. Could be a reliever or a starter, and the injury concerns seem to be behind him. Personally, I'd be very surprised if Stilson wasn't at least given the chance to start games for his first pro season, but the idea of him as our closer does give me a half-chub.
Roberto Osuna
Born: 02/07/1995
Drafted/Signed: 2011, Mexico
Marco Paddy, now with the White Sox, absolutely loved the nephew of former big-leaguer Antonio Osuna. Roberto Osuna is probably still years away from the show, but the Blue Jays' commitment to nabbing high-priced international free agents should be commended.
Jeremy Gabryszwski
Born: 03/16/1993
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2011, HS
Sits in the low-to-mid 90s comfortably and flashes a pretty darn good curve-ball. Looked good in a very brief stint in Rookie Ball in 2011: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1BB, 6K, 0ER.
It's probably optimistic to expect all of these high-ceiling young arms to make it to the show, but if even one or two hit their ceiling, AA's draft approach has succeeded. What surprises me the most is just how quickly the Blue Jays stockpiled quality young arms. These players weren't acquired through trade and were all drafted or signed during the brief Anthopoulos era. In just two MLB Amateur Player Drafts, Anthopoulos has established depth that maybe only the Mariners can match.
Quite frankly, even without the likes of Marisnick, D'Arnaud and Gose, the Blue Jays system would probably still be classified as a top-10 organization. It's definitely tough to see Marco Paddy's departure, but the system and network out scouts remain strong.
So, I guess, that's exactly how this happened.
Noah Syndergaard
Born: 8/29/1992
Drafted/Signed: 1st Round, 2010, HS
Baseball Prospectus: 93rd Overall
Minor League Ball: 67th Overall
There's something downright amazing about a 6'5, 200lb, 20-year old that can hit the high-90s with projectible secondary pitches.
Daniel Norris
Born: 4/25/1993
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2011, HS
Baseball Prospectus: 54th Overall
Baseball America: 91st Overall
Minor League Ball: 70th Overall
A steal of a deal in the second round, Norris is yet another high-schooler with huge upside. He sits in the low-to-mid 90s from the left-side.
Justin Nicolino
Born: 11/22/1991
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2010, HS
Minor League Ball: 68th Overall
Another lefty, Nicolino shows quite a bit of polish and pitchability. At 6'3"/160, he's got room to fill out and should advance quickly. Could end up being a very good middle-of-the-rotation lefty.
Drew Hutchison
Born: 8/22/1990
Drafted/Signed: 15th Round, 2009, HS
Minor League Ball: 73rd Overall
The fourth high school arm, Hutchinson has really out-pitched all expectations. Another quality middle-of-the-rotation arm with the kind of polish you'd never expect from a high school draftee.
Aaron Sanchez
Born: 7/1/1992
Drafted/Signed: Supplemental, 2010, HS
And again with the High School arms. Sanchez didn't have a great debut, but the high-ceiling arm is still apparently attached to his body. Has a solid fastball that should only improve and a curve-ball that projects out pretty well.
Deck McGuire
Born: 6/23/1989
Drafted/Signed: 1st Round, 2010, College
Minor League Ball: 80th Overall
It's a college arm! I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see McGuire log some innings in Toronto this year as he's fairly close to where he needs to be. McGuire projects as a solid piece in any rotation. Gets good movement on the fastball and shows the ability to pitch.
Asher Wojiechowski
Born: 12/21/1988
Drafted/Signed: Supplemental, 2010, College
Two College arms in a row! Asher still has quite a bit of upside but lost velocity and suffered through a whole lotta awful as the Jays attempted to change his delivery. Wojciechowski will fit nicely in the back end of the rotation or as a power arm out of the pen.
Joe Musgrove
Born: 12/04/1992
Drafted/Signed: 2011, Supplemental, HS
Yah, so he's 6'5"/230 at 19-years old. He's got great velocity and a good breaking ball.
Kevin Comer
Born: 8/1/92
Drafted/Signed: 1st Round, 2011, HS
Thank God for Miguel Olivo, amirite? Comer was clocked around 95mph and was one of a handful of Blue Jays first round draft picks in 2011. It was a big risk by AA, but it paid off. I'm pretty excited by the kid.
Adonys Cardona
Born: 1/16/1994
Drafted/Signed: Venezuela, 2010
The Jays gave Cardona $2.8M and if his pro-debut was any indication, they made the right choice. He's got all sorts of room to fill out and add velocity. Great fastball, great curve-ball, and a whole lotta upside.
John Stilson
Born: 7/28/1990
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2011, College
Stilson has a great fastball and a terrific change-up with a couple breaking balls. Could be a reliever or a starter, and the injury concerns seem to be behind him. Personally, I'd be very surprised if Stilson wasn't at least given the chance to start games for his first pro season, but the idea of him as our closer does give me a half-chub.
Roberto Osuna
Born: 02/07/1995
Drafted/Signed: 2011, Mexico
Marco Paddy, now with the White Sox, absolutely loved the nephew of former big-leaguer Antonio Osuna. Roberto Osuna is probably still years away from the show, but the Blue Jays' commitment to nabbing high-priced international free agents should be commended.
Jeremy Gabryszwski
Born: 03/16/1993
Drafted/Signed: 2nd Round, 2011, HS
Sits in the low-to-mid 90s comfortably and flashes a pretty darn good curve-ball. Looked good in a very brief stint in Rookie Ball in 2011: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1BB, 6K, 0ER.
It's probably optimistic to expect all of these high-ceiling young arms to make it to the show, but if even one or two hit their ceiling, AA's draft approach has succeeded. What surprises me the most is just how quickly the Blue Jays stockpiled quality young arms. These players weren't acquired through trade and were all drafted or signed during the brief Anthopoulos era. In just two MLB Amateur Player Drafts, Anthopoulos has established depth that maybe only the Mariners can match.
Quite frankly, even without the likes of Marisnick, D'Arnaud and Gose, the Blue Jays system would probably still be classified as a top-10 organization. It's definitely tough to see Marco Paddy's departure, but the system and network out scouts remain strong.
So, I guess, that's exactly how this happened.
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Johnny Cueto: Noted Sabermetrician
On facing Cuban-born Yoenis Cespedes, Johnny Cueto remarked, "He looks like he had some idea at home plate."
In other news, Cueto was photographed throwing an imaginary baseball. When asked for comment, Cespedes did not return our calls.
Friday, 9 March 2012
Brett Lawrie And The Hot Corner
The entire city of Toronto has fallen in love with the British Columbia product. Yes, he's Canadian, but it's my civic duty to inform Toronto that British Columbia hates us. Not just British Columbia, but all of Canada hates us. We're not the New York City of Canada, it's not a love/hate relationship; kids from Red Deer, Alberta don't dream of making it to the big city. The only Canadians that idolize Toronto are those from the suburbs outside of Toronto and they just like our fancy discothèques. Who wants to cheer for someone from Etobicoke anyways? People from Ohio, that's who. Hell, Cincinnati is basically Kentucky, anyways.
So ...that Brett Lawrie kid, eh?
Everyone, including the trained chimpanzees running the prediction models, love him.
Other than Marcel, Sky-net tends to think that Lawrie is in for a full season of baseball. If Lawrie reaches the 600 Plate Appearances threshold, it's not out of the question for these very lofty predictions to be cemented as his 2012 numbers.
The consensus seems to be about 25 HR, 85R, 79 RBI, and 23 SB with a .279 AVG and while those statistics are certainly ambitious, they're not a pipe dream.
Everything seemed to change after he joined the Blue Jays organization, though. Lawrie had posted very good, but not spectacular statistics across about 1000 plate appearances in the Brewers organization. Brett Lawrie is still of the age where huge steps in production are common, but the city of Toronto is still basing it's optimism on around 500 plate appearances split between Las Vegas and Toronto. While Lawrie's .661 SLG in Vegas may add credence to his .580 SLG in Toronto, one must remember that Las Vegas drastically inflates statistics. Jays' catcher, J.P. Arencibia, posted a similar SLG in Vegas. As did Eric Thames, and basically every other Blue Jay with even the slightest hint of power.
Just as I wouldn't be surprised to see Lawrie post god-mode numbers, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him strike-out more while walking less. Lawrie's peripheral statistics seem to support his 2011 season, and players that establish themselves at such a young age have a greater chance of becoming star players, but the expectations heading into 2012 are grand.
So ...that Brett Lawrie kid, eh?
Everyone, including the trained chimpanzees running the prediction models, love him.
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 2012 | Steamer | 599 | 19 | 79 | 73 | 16 | 7.5% | 18.6% | 0.209 | 0.301 | 0.264 | 0.326 | 0.473 | 0.345 | |
| 2012 | Bill James | 153 | 628 | 22 | 92 | 75 | 30 | 7.0% | 18.8% | 0.211 | 0.324 | 0.284 | 0.337 | 0.495 | 0.361 |
| 2012 | RotoChamp | 590 | 26 | 80 | 85 | 25 | 10.2% | 17.3% | 0.238 | 0.306 | 0.281 | 0.366 | 0.519 | 0.386 | |
| 2012 | Marcel | 286 | 11 | 39 | 37 | 8 | 9.1% | 17.5% | 0.217 | 0.318 | 0.285 | 0.359 | 0.502 | 0.375 | |
| 2012 | Fans (87) | 143 | 605 | 24 | 97 | 102 | 23 | 8.6% | 18.3% | 0.222 | 0.320 | 0.286 | 0.356 | 0.508 | 0.378 |
| 2012 | ZiPS | 148 | 659 | 27 | 90 | 79 | 24 | 6.7% | 20.5% | 0.223 | 0.314 | 0.275 | 0.333 | 0.498 | 0.362 |
| 561.2 | 21.5 | 79.5 | 75.2 | 21 | 8.2% | 18.5% | 0.220 | 0.314 | 0.279 | 0.346 | 0.499 | 0.368 |
Other than Marcel, Sky-net tends to think that Lawrie is in for a full season of baseball. If Lawrie reaches the 600 Plate Appearances threshold, it's not out of the question for these very lofty predictions to be cemented as his 2012 numbers.
The consensus seems to be about 25 HR, 85R, 79 RBI, and 23 SB with a .279 AVG and while those statistics are certainly ambitious, they're not a pipe dream.
Everything seemed to change after he joined the Blue Jays organization, though. Lawrie had posted very good, but not spectacular statistics across about 1000 plate appearances in the Brewers organization. Brett Lawrie is still of the age where huge steps in production are common, but the city of Toronto is still basing it's optimism on around 500 plate appearances split between Las Vegas and Toronto. While Lawrie's .661 SLG in Vegas may add credence to his .580 SLG in Toronto, one must remember that Las Vegas drastically inflates statistics. Jays' catcher, J.P. Arencibia, posted a similar SLG in Vegas. As did Eric Thames, and basically every other Blue Jay with even the slightest hint of power.
Just as I wouldn't be surprised to see Lawrie post god-mode numbers, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him strike-out more while walking less. Lawrie's peripheral statistics seem to support his 2011 season, and players that establish themselves at such a young age have a greater chance of becoming star players, but the expectations heading into 2012 are grand.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)